We Are Now A Backsliding Democracy

Are we destined to become another Hungary?

On May 29, 2010, Hungary was a liberal democracy with a free press, robust civil liberties, judicial independence, and a multi-party political system. That day, Viktor Orban, who previously had been Prime Minister, returned to power after a free and fair election driven by voter discontent over the incumbent government’s handling of the 2008 financial crisis. In his years out of power, Orban had established an iron grip on the Fidesz party, and had remade it in his image into a right-wing populist body.

In short order, Orban’s government, having commandeered the legal and political system, eviscerated judicial independence, installed a loyalist judiciary, attacked and undermined the free press, enacted election laws that hugely advantaged Fidesz and put an end to free and fair elections, labeled dissenters foreign agents and restricted their activities, and overhauled the constitution to centralize and consolidate power.

Propped up by these perversions of democratic rule, Orban remains in power 15 years later. The international community and European Union have repeatedly condemned Hungary’s democratic decline, but to no avail. Orban’s moves have sufficiently weakened opposition parties that they lack the means to topple him within the new ground rules he has established, even though his popular support now sits under 30%. Large scale demonstrations in October called for an end to elements of Orban’s oppressive rule. But, of course, there’s an immense difference between protesting from the outside for a restoration of democracy and using the tools of a vibrant democracy to change the party in power.

Donald Trump, who returns to official power at noon today, has consistently expressed admiration for Orban as a “tough” and “smart” leader and a “strongman.” In his debate with Kamala Harris, he rebuffed Harris’s assertion that world leaders didn’t respect him by citing Orban, “one of the most respected men.”

After his election victory, Orban and Trump had a phone call, after which Orban announced “big plans for the future.” Then last month Orban came to Mar-A-Lago to visit with Trump and Elon Musk.

Trump will take his oath of office as President today, and if past is prologue, he will be lying. In the last few months, even before taking office, Trump has used strongarm tactics to bring both houses of Congress to heel. He has laid plans to reconstruct the government under the dominant principle of loyalty to his personal interests, and to punish any official who defies him. He has attacked the free press and seduced and intimidated their owners to grovel.

As of this very day, America is a backsliding democracy.

The overriding question becomes whether different forms of resistance can limit the backsliding and preserve a core of constitutional rule to nurture back to full health after Trump leaves the scene. Even though it seems to wash over in the majority of citizens, it is no exaggeration to say that the future of American democracy is on the line.

A bitter lesson of the Trump age is that the constitutional rule that we had taken to be iron law, molded in the very words of the constitution, in fact is underpinned by softer cultural norms that Trump has been able to shred. Only 10 years ago, the prospect of a Hungary-like devolution of the world’s strongest and most enduring democracy would have been laughable. Now we can actually see the descending path to authoritarianism and the benchmarks along the way.

Because they depend ultimately on norms and the shared dedication of the people, democracies are fragile. When a constellation of weaknesses combines with the ascent to power of a vicious strongman, they can be gutted. It happened in Hungary, and it can happen here.

Let me say that again. It happened in Hungary, and it can happen here.

The risks are far keener as Trump returns to power for a second term, which was the point at which Orban undid Hungarian democracy. Project 2025 and Trump’s own crass instincts have dramatically reconfigured the very purposes of government.

More alarmingly, the vast majority of his party have abjectly surrendered to his self-centered project. His brutal tactics have forced the capitulation to his will of nearly every federal Republican. The most recent example was Joni Ernst, a survivor of sexual violence, cracking under pressure from Trump to support Pete Hegseth, who combines a lack of all qualifications to run the Department of Defense with an alarming record of sexual misconduct allegations.

Compounding these challenges, four years after watching Trump turbocharge a violent attack on the Capitol designed to defeat the peaceful transfer of power, the American people, or a majority of them, seem unmoved by the gravity of Trump 2.0. Critics often point to a kind of national amnesia, but I don’t think that quite captures it. Abetted by the media, the country seems to have undergone a subtle shift. The revulsion and outrage of 2021 feels drained away, and Trump’s presidency—built on lies and inhumanity—is starting to feel way too normal—even grotesquely charismatic—to way too many people.

This Substack is dedicated 100% to calling out, and pushing back against, the inroads into democracy that Trump has paved the way for in the last two months and that commence in earnest today.

As I’ve said before, that means two things.

First, it means spotlighting Trump’s lies, even, or especially when traditional media is falling down on job #1 of distinguishing fact from fiction. There is invariably a lie at the center of Trump’s assault on Democratic rule. His press conference Sunday was a mix of recycled lies—e.g the 2020 election was rigged, or immigration numbers were at a low when he left office—and newfangled ones—e.g he won the youth vote in 2024 or he won Pennsylvania in a landslide (it was under 2%).

As of today, we return to government by lies. The mass deportations that are reportedly set to begin in Chicago justified as stopping a wave of murderous hordes – a lie. The reprisal prosecutions justified as revenge for politicized, meritless prosecutions against him – a lie. The prospective pardons justified as mercy for heroes and nonviolent patriots – a lie. Voting reforms justified as protection against widespread fraud at the polls – a lie.

Push on any of Trump’s authoritarian ambitions, and you will find a lie. It’s the lesson that Orwell drove home in 1984 and, even more, the essay “Politics and the English Language,” the indispensable guide for the age of Trump. And it has never been so pertinent. It’s dispiriting and exhausting, but it’s the first rule of Trump. And that makes the first rule of resistance to always call out the lie.

Second, Trump is laying the groundwork for a series of actions at violent odds with our defining values—mass round ups of immigrants, reprisal prosecutions drawn from Kash Patel’s hit list, ridiculous defamation suits designed to cow and intimidate the press, and lawless executive orders, including scores that he will issue today. Here, we have to take to the barricades. One thing that I hope I can do with this Substack is explain the anti-democratic implications of his actions based on my own government experience. But more than that, all of us can sound the alarm, and sound it again. As Marc Elias put it in a recent Talking Feds 1-on-1, everyone has her own town square—family, friends, co-workers—where they can call out lies and push back against democratic backsliding.

I am committed to doing that week in and week out for the—gasp—208 weeks that start today (and who knows if Trump will try to extend that?). Your support is the whole fuel to the fire, and it’s been amazing. We’ve grown way faster and larger than I ever expected. I am hugely grateful, and I pledge in return to keep burning.

Talk to you later.