Trump’s Cardinal Rule
What finally cost Kristi Noem her job.
Lighter Fare
In a week full of heavy news, we’re lightening things up—just a little. My thoughts are with the service members risking their lives for Trump’s illegal war in Iran.
Meanwhile, the news continues to break at home. The DOJ’s handling of the mounting Epstein chaos is ongoing, and Pam Bondi has been subpoenaed to testify before Congress to answer for it. Trump abandoned—and then abruptly revived—his attacks on Big Law. It now appears that Kristi Noem was the first domino to fall, which I discuss more in the piece below.
Not to dog-pile on Kristi Noem (too soon?), but we are also here to announce this week’s contest winner. We asked the Fed Heads to weigh in, in five words or fewer: What are the reported lovebirds Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski doing for Valentine’s Day? The winner was Betty, with her cheeky answer, “Picnicking on her returned blanket.” Congratulations, Betty! A member of our team will be in touch shortly to arrange sending you a Talking Feds mug.
Last week’s roundtable featured Susan Glasser, Bill Kristol, and Jon Lemire to discuss Trump’s State of the Union, the ongoing Epstein fallout, and the beginnings of what would turn out to be war in Iran. Amid the chaos brewing domestically and internationally, FBI Director Kash Patel was busy partying with the US men’s hockey team in Italy. He was, apparently, there “to provide security expertise.” So we asked: What kind of security expertise did Patel provide to the men’s hockey team?
You can catch Susan, Bill, and Jon’s answers at 1:02 — and now it’s your turn. Submit your own five-words-or-fewer entry here for a chance to win a coveted Talking Feds mug.
Trump’s Cardinal Rule
What finally cost Kristi Noem her job.
Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem did more than enough, long ago, to justify being fired. Her entire tenure was marked by one misstep after another, all of which she weathered—until yesterday.
Now she’s out—at least from DHS—the first cabinet-level official to be sacked in this administration. Trump announced the move on social media, replacing her with Senator Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma.
That alone says something about Trump’s second administration. Officials who in Trump 1.0 would have been forced out quickly have remained in place despite controversies, investigations, and public blunders. Noem herself was a prime exhibit, until she wasn’t. Noem did something to set herself apart from other embarrassing appointees.
Noem’s tenure had been a parade of controversies.
She drew heavy criticism with reflexive slandering of Minneapolis shooting victims Alex Pretti and Renee Good, whom she said had committed acts of domestic terrorism. She refused to retract the claim even after video evidence and testimony from federal agencies undermined it. She empowered controversial figures inside DHS, including adviser Corey Lewandowski, whose extraordinary influence fueled complaints that the department had become politicized and chaotic (and whom The Wall Street Journal reported was having an affair with Noem). The department’s own inspector general accused her leadership of obstructing oversight investigations—an allegation that in most administrations would have triggered a major scandal.
At an oversight hearing last week, she was lambasted by Republican senators. Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) told Noem that DHS had “lost the confidence of this committee,” adding that the department increasingly appeared to be run “more like a political operation than a national security department.”
There’s more, but you get the point. By last week, Noem already was the betting favorite for the first official to be ousted from Trump’s cabinet.
None of Noem’s misconduct was enough to cost her the job. The final straw turned out to be something much smaller.
At the same oversight hearing last week, Noem was called to the carpet about a $220 million government advertising campaign promoting Trump’s immigration agenda. The campaign was controversial from the start. It prominently featured Noem herself, including a scene of her riding horseback at Mount Rushmore. Critics saw it as self-promotion disguised as a public information effort.
Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) pressed her about the approval process.
Had Trump personally approved the campaign? Yes, Noem said. She had discussed it with him before taking office and afterward.
That, it turned out, was the kiss of death.
Trump quickly contradicted her. “I never knew anything about it,” he told Reuters.
Green-lighting the campaign would be a small and quickly forgotten detail next to the far more outrageous conduct Trump produces daily. Still, it cast him in a somewhat bad light—and coming from a cabinet member, that was intolerable.
Whether Noem’s account was accurate or not almost doesn’t matter. Indeed, one of the two of them seems not to be telling the truth, but as between Trump and Noem, good luck figuring out which.
But the problem wasn’t lying. It was placing Trump in a somewhat embarrassing position.
Noem has had plenty of company among senior officials who have repeatedly embarrassed the administration with some combination of ineptitude and lawlessness. Think Patel, Gabbard, Kennedy, Hegseth, Bondi, Lutnick. All have clung to their jobs.
It’s likely that most if not all of these would have gotten the ax during Trump’s first term, when dismissals were routine. Trump seemed to relish saying his television celebrity words—you’re fired. He went through no fewer than four White House chiefs of staff, three national security advisers, two secretaries of state, two defense secretaries, and untold numbers of acting officials.
It was all part of an administration fueled by chaos.
Not these last fourteen months. Officials who in previous administrations would have been forced out quickly have remained in place despite controversies, investigations, and public blunders.
As I see it, there are two prominent reasons for this reversal of firing practices.
The first is political. With his ratings sliding, Trump cannot count on easily confirming successors. The nomination of Senator Mullin illustrates the point. Sitting senators almost never reject one of their own, making him a relatively safe confirmation bet.
The second reason is more revealing, and more troubling.
In an administration that pushes legal and political boundaries almost daily, insiders know things. They know how decisions were made. They know where the bodies are buried. Once someone leaves the inner circle, that knowledge becomes a risk.
Better to keep them close.
It resembles the well-known practice in mob organizations—a comparison that increasingly fits Trump’s government. Mob bosses are careful not to create incentives for former insiders to leave the fold and spill the beans. Loyalty norms—omertà—depend on belonging. Once someone is cut off, their incentive to keep quiet drops dramatically.
Law enforcement has seen the pattern for decades. Some of the most famous Mafia cooperators—Joe Valachi, Sammy “the Bull” Gravano—started talking only after they believed the boss had cast them aside.
Keeping someone in the tent, even in a diminished role, preserves leverage—and sometimes even a measure of lingering loyalty.
That tells us a lot about how Trump governs.
Thus, Noem got a gracious landing pad from Trump, who praised her in announcing the change, writing that she “has served us well, and has had numerous and spectacular results (especially on the Border!).”
He added that she would be “moving to be Special Envoy for The Shield of the Americas, our new Security Initiative in the Western Hemisphere.”
Noem, no fool when it comes to political back-scratching, reciprocated with a loyal post of her own:
“Thank you @POTUS Trump for appointing me as the Special Envoy for the Shield of the Americas… In this new role, I will be able to build on the partnerships and national security expertise I forged over the last 13 months as Secretary of Homeland Security.”
She went on to tout what she called “historic accomplishments” at DHS, including “the MOST secure border in American history.”
It’s not clear whether she will have any real responsibilities, but she will still have an august title and bragging rights about her position. She is not an outcast.
In other words, Noem was pushed aside—but kept close.
The same dynamic has applied to others—Alina Habba, Ed Martin Jr., and Lindsey Halligan—whom political winds blew out of their positions but who received sufficiently distinguished-sounding appointments afterward.
It hasn’t been easy for senior Administration officials in Trump 2.0 to get themselves fired.
Officials can, more or less, lie, cheat, and steal.
What they cannot do is make the president look bad.
That rule sits at the top of the hierarchy. Personal loyalty to Trump outranks competence, institutional norms, or political fallout.
Keeping former insiders close is a form of insurance. Officials who remain within Trump’s orbit have incentives to stay loyal and avoid speaking out about what they saw while in power.
That is why Noem’s removal sends two messages at once.
First, the administration still enforces its central rule: never, ever embarrass Donald Trump. You can be sure that every senior administration official absorbed that lesson from Noem’s ouster.
Second, punishment does not mean banishment. The boss will still take care of you—so long as you remain loyal.
In Trump’s Washington, you can survive scandal, incompetence, even lawlessness. What you cannot do is embarrass the boss.
Talk to you later.
She simply took the news away from his highness. He will not tolerate that
And just like MOB BOSSES the people he kicks out or to a madeup position will remain loyal and silent because they are all "MADE MEN and WOMEN!" Mutual blackmail, dirt on each other will keep them all SILENT until MUTUAL DESTRUCTION becomes an option by making a deal with real justice, law and order prosecutors. I pray for some avenue for this DESTRUCTION SOON.