Caught In His Own Trap

Trump’s defamation lawsuit and claim that the letter is false guarantee an extended train wreck.

(Photo by Allison Bailey/NurPhoto)

The defamation lawsuit Donald Trump filed against the Wall Street Journal Friday night is at once the most predictable and stupidest move he could have made. So long as he pursues the case, it virtually ensures the Jeffrey Epstein scandal now roiling his second presidency will continue and grow—and that it will culminate in a train wreck.

Trump has made a career of using meritless lawsuits to browbeat opponents, change the narrative, or delay other proceedings. He has generally remained indifferent to the blowback he receives in court or in the press, reasoning that he could weather any storm so long as his base remains steady. From Charlottesville to January 6 to the classified docs in the Mar-a-Lago bathroom, Trump has survived scandal after scandal because his base was always willing to look away. The same voters who cheered family separation and shrugged off his call to terminate the Constitution have stayed firmly in his corner.

But the Epstein story is different. It touches something that many of his most devoted followers care about more than him: the conspiratorial obsession with pedophilia rings and global elites.

And he is taking on a publication—The Wall Street Journal—that has bet its reputation on the story. He’s not going to be able to shake down the Journal for a cheap settlement and a claim of victory.

For years, MAGA diehards—and adjacent QAnon circles—have insisted that a secret cabal of elites is engaged in child trafficking, and that Epstein was central to the network. The belief isn’t just that Epstein was evil, but that he was a gatekeeper to a world of depravity involving media moguls, financiers, and powerful politicians.

While he was out of power, Trump encouraged MAGA’s obsession and promised to open the books if he returned to the White House. And in recent weeks, Pam Bondi all but swore that an open file was coming, only to deliver a meek “never mind” and retreat to the position that there was no Epstein client list to reveal.

Bondi, whom the MAGA crowd has never fully trusted, is now locked in rancorous infighting with the likes of Deputy FBI Director Dan Bongino over her treatment of the Epstein files.

That’s the crucial backstory to this Trump lawsuit: for the first time, he is facing backlash from members of his own loyal base.

So when the Journal reported that Trump had contributed an off-color letter to a notebook assembled for Epstein’s 50th birthday, it wasn’t just another tabloid tidbit. It was confirmation of MAGA world’s deepest suspicions—combined with Bondi’s retreat—that has fueled a growing drumbeat for the administration to come clean. And that drumbeat shows no sign of quieting any time soon.

The story sparked an immediate firestorm, and Trump had no choice but to respond.

But that didn’t mean he had to dig a far deeper hole. Trump could’ve taken the approach he used during his first sexually tinged scandal—his comments on Access Hollywood: admit the note, dismiss it as wrong and juvenile, and pivot. He did, in fact, part ways with Epstein in 2004 after a tug of war over a real estate deal. He could have said, “Yes, I once wrote a birthday note, before I knew who he really was. I cut ties long ago. End of story.”

Not flattering, but survivable.

Instead, Trump went reflexively to his very thin playbook: first claim “fake,” then sue. His lawsuit, and his public defense, are premised on a very clear and falsifiable claim: that the Wall Street Journal manufactured the letter.

He doesn’t argue that the note is misunderstood or dated. Rather, he claims the Journal simply fabricated it. The complaint asserts that “no authentic letter or drawing exists. Defendants concocted this story to malign President Trump’s character and integrity and deceptively portray him in a false light.”

Which means the whole case turns on one question: is the notebook real?

Anyone with a whiff of media literacy knows the answer. The Wall Street Journal would never have published the story without rock-solid sourcing. If they printed it, they have the receipts. It’s Trump’s burden to prove the reporting is false and that the Journal knew it—an impossible task once the letter shows up.

And it’s not just the letter. The Journal article also reports that DOJ officials examined pages from the album years ago. You can be sure that they can back that up with witness testimony as well.

It’s also obvious that the Journal wouldn’t have published the story unless it was fully prepared for all-out war with Trump. This isn’t like his recent cases against ABC and CBS, where he was able to leverage threats directed at the companies’ broader business holdings to secure settlements of weak or groundless cases.

Here, by contrast, a train wreck is unavoidable—and the only real question is whether it will come slowly enough for his MAGA supporters to lose interest. Based on the last few weeks, that seems unlikely.

Every court filing in the case will pour more fuel on the fire and dominate another news cycle. Every motion or hearing will refocus attention on the one question he can’t win: the notebook’s existence.

And then there’s the Trump deposition.

Trump is a notoriously undisciplined witness. He rambles. He prevaricates. He lashes out. He implicates himself—and others. Imagine that energy under oath, on the record, about Epstein.

Since the case hinges on the claim that the letter doesn’t exist, Trump will be asked—explicitly—about his relationship with Epstein, his knowledge of Epstein’s behavior, past statements, and anything that could corroborate or contradict his denials.

It’s hard to envision a version of that deposition that isn’t a debacle—legally and politically.

And once the notebook is verified, the whole charade implodes. The lawsuit collapses. Trump’s credibility craters. And the very people who’ve demanded Epstein’s enablers be unmasked will see that Trump tried to bury the story.

It’s akin to the lead-up to President Clinton’s impeachment. Once reports emerged that Clinton had denied under oath having had a sexual relationship with Monica Lewinsky, his supporters knew he’d handed his enemies a weapon to pummel him with. There was a sick sensation in the pit of their stomachs: what lay ahead was a series of failed maneuvers and a humiliating reveal.

The same applies now to Trump—but this time, he walked right into the trap. By bringing the lawsuit and making it all about whether the Epstein notebook exists, he ensured the worst possible outcome.

There was an off-ramp. He didn’t take it. Like the scorpion in the fable who stings the frog while crossing the river—killing them both—he “couldn’t help it. It’s in [his] nature.”

This won’t be one of those scandals that fades in the churn. It’s built for slow, ugly unraveling. It guarantees repeated exposure, sustained embarrassment, and a final reckoning.

The man who once boasted he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose support may have finally found the issue that tests that theory—not because the allegations are more damning, but because, for once, the story matters more than the man.

He’s not just fighting the Wall Street Journal. He’s fighting the paranoid mythology he spent years feeding.

And he’s going to lose.

Talk to you later.

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